'How Innovation Works' by Matt Ridley, offers a systematic examination of this incredibly important but poorly understood phenomenon. What is innovation? According to Ridley, it is much more than invention (something often mistaken for innovation). Invention is the act of discovering an idea; it is merely a beginning, an inception point. Innovation is much more, it is when the invention is taken into the world and made practical. Innovation is the creative reconfiguration of multiple inventions and ideas into something new. Innovation is the act of fully exploring the consequences of that new thing and disseminating and integrating it into society and general use. 

Matt Ridley argues that we need to see innovation as an incremental, bottom-up, fortuitous process that happens as a direct result of the human habit of exchange, rather than an orderly, top-down process developing according to a plan. Innovation is crucially different from invention, because it is the turning of inventions into things of practical and affordable use to people. It speeds up in some sectors and slows down in others. It is always a collective, collaborative phenomenon, involving trial and error, not a matter of lonely genius. It still cannot be modelled properly by economists, but it can easily be discouraged by politicians. Far from there being too much innovation, we may be on the brink of an innovation famine.

Matt Ridley, 5th Viscount Ridley, is a British science writer, journalist and businessman. He is best known for his writings on science, the environment, and economics.


Key learnings

Innovation isn’t an instantaneous creative act practiced by lone geniuses. It’s actually a long, messy, and complicated process. Innovation occurs when chance encounters and serendipitous insights are shared, remixed, and built upon by countless individuals. New inventions are slowly and incrementally improved over time as people find practical uses for novel ideas. If we want more innovation in the future, we need to foster the open exchange of knowledge and take big risks as individuals, organizations, and nations.


Innovation is a complex, messy, and collective process

The Industrial Revolution – the giant leap in productivity that kicked off the modern era – began when humans first harnessed the power of steam to automate work. To do this, they used a new machine called the atmospheric steam engine. So, who do we thank for this astounding achievement? A man named Denis Papin. Or, wait, maybe we should thank Thomas Savery. Or, hold on, maybe a fellow called Thomas Newcomen deserves our praise? The truth is, all three men deserve some credit, but none of them can claim all of it. That’s because, around 1700, Papin, Savery, and Newcomen all produced their own working models of the atmospheric engine. To this day, it’s unclear who was truly first or how much each inventor influenced the others.

We often associate a new invention with a single creator. However, that’s an oversimplification of how innovation operates. Even the most creative people don’t work in a vacuum. They’re always influenced by the tools, technologies, ideas, and social structures that surround them. This often means multiple forces contribute to an innovation, even when one person takes the credit. Let’s consider the case of the atmospheric steam engine. This relatively simple device heats and cools water in a metal cylinder. The changing pressure caused by steam creates movement that can be used for work, like pumping water out of mines. Could Papin, Savery, or Newcomen have invented this completely on their own? Not really. The basic ideas behind the device were already hot topics of discussion in scientific circles at the time. Papin and Savery, both educated men, refined their thinking by exchanging letters and papers with other inventors. Moreover, Newcomen, who built the most successful version of the engine, relied on previous advances in blacksmithing technology to complete his machine. Thus, each man’s invention was also a product of their backgrounds and influences.

This principle applies to all innovation. While Thomas Edison gets credit for inventing the light bulb in 1879, the truth is, more than 20 other creators patented similar contraptions in earlier decades. All these thinkers were responding to ideas and technologies circulating at the time. Of course, some of these attempts were better than others, but none of these innovations happened in complete isolation.


Medical innovations offer high risks and even higher rewards

While the atmospheric steam engine kicked off the Industrial Revolution, medicine evolved with its own innovative procedures, like the following: Step one: Find someone recovering from smallpox. Carefully scrape some pus off one of the many open lesions caused by the disease. Step two: Using a knife or needle, cut an open wound into your own skin. Not too deep, but deep enough to draw blood. Step three: Rub the infected pus into your wound.

This technique is called engraftment. In most cases, it’ll make you immune to smallpox. If it seems gross and dangerous now, just imagine how it appeared to a European in the 1700s. They didn’t have a scientific understanding of why it worked, yet it did work. So, as the century progressed, the practice caught on. It saved countless lives and eventually led to the discovery of modern-day vaccines.

An interesting fact about innovation is that the biggest revelations don’t always come from deliberate discovery or sound scientific theory. Instead, they develop piecemeal over time through random chance, as well as trial and error, as people look for practical solutions to their problems. In the medical field, this is a particularly risky process, but it has resulted in many life-saving practices.

Consider Jersey City’s water supply. In 1908, rapid industrial development tainted the city’s water with unsanitary runoff. The result was serious outbreaks of cholera and other diseases. In a rush to fix the problem, Dr. John Leal added chloride of lime, a disinfectant, to the water. At the time, adding chemicals to drinking water was considered repulsive. Local citizens were outraged. But Leal had heard rumors of it working in European cities, so he tried it anyway. Within months, the experiment paid off, and disease rates plummeted. Soon, communities all around the country were following Jersey City’s example.

Are such open-ended experiments occurring today? Of course. Take the example of electronic cigarettes, also known as vaping. For many, picking up a vaping habit is the first step toward quitting smoking. Since tobacco use is a major cause of death, this could save many lives. Yet, we don’t fully know the health effects of vaping, so their use remains controversial. In some countries, like the United Kingdom, government agencies encourage their use. In contrast, other countries, like Australia, have banned it. Which country takes the right stance on this innovation? That remains to be seen.


Travel innovation is all about incremental improvements

The Salamanca, the Puffing Billy, the Sans Pareil. These names sound silly now, but in the early 1800s, each represented a small step toward improving the way we move. You see, at the dawn of the nineteenth century, the horse was the king of transportation. However, inventors believed a machine, the steam-powered locomotive, could take its place. The tricky part was figuring out how to build one. So, engineers tried a great deal of different designs, giving each new prototype a bold new name. Not every device succeeded, but some made subsequent improvements in speed, safety, or reliability. By 1829, the Rocket, a locomotive built by Robert Stephenson, was capable of transporting 13 tons of cargo at 30 miles an hour – and the world was on its way to a railway boom.

Throughout history, humans have always looked for faster, more reliable ways to travel. However, no new mode of transportation ever emerged in a completely perfect form. For example, the sleek, efficient machines that carry us around today are the result of countless individuals making innumerable small design improvements over time.

Look at the evolution of today’s automobiles. Most rely on the internal-combustion engine for power. Isaac de Rivaz, a Franco-Swiss artillery officer, built this machine’s earliest ancestor back in 1807. It ran on hydrogen and oxygen and was loud, clunky, and prone to explosions. In 1860, a Pennsylvanian man named Jean Joseph Lenoir updated the design to run on petroleum. This was a step-up, but the device was still very inefficient.

Next, in 1876, Nikolau Otto, a grocery salesman, refined the machine by adding a four-step cycle of compression and ignition. Dubbed the four-stroke engine, this model allowed for smoother operation. This design was adopted by the German inventor Karl Benz. In 1894, he amped up the engine’s power and used it to drive a three-wheeled machine called the Motorwagen.

While the Motorwagen was a hit with the rich, it remained a novelty. It took another inventor, Henry Ford, to bring the automobile to the masses. In 1909, his assembly-line manufacturing process made the Model T car affordable to more people. Soon, cars were one of the most popular forms of transportation around. It took decades of slow, steady improvement, but the engine had finally conquered the horse.


Some innovations aren’t solid things but simply good ideas

The humble potato is the basis for so many popular snacks and dishes we love today, but this wasn’t always the case. At least, it wasn’t in Europe. That took some innovation. First cultivated more than 8,000 years ago in the Andes Mountains of South America, the potato didn’t arrive in the Old World until the mid-1500s. However, for decades, Europeans regarded potatoes with suspicion. The church in England banned them. People in France believed they caused leprosy. Still, slowly, people learned to love this robust, nutrient-rich crop. The idea of eating potatoes first caught on in Belgium. Then the idea spread throughout the entire continent. By the 1800s, most European countries had made the potato a new staple of their cuisine.

Often, the concept of innovation gets reduced to invention. That is, we think of innovation as the process of making new tangible items like labor-saving machines or electronic gizmos. However, some of the most influential innovations of all time aren’t objects at all. Instead, they’re ideas that open up new ways to approach the world or solve problems.

One intangible innovation you use every day is the Arabic numeric system, more commonly known as numbers.
Yes, even the idea of using 1s, 2s, and 3s was once revolutionary. This counting system was first developed by Indian scholars around 500 AD. It was then adopted by Arab traders in the ninth century, and finally found a foothold in Europe in the 1200s thanks to an Italian author known as Fibonacci. Fibonacci advocated for using Arabic numerals because they were more practical than the Roman numerals popular at the time. Their key advantage was their positional system. While the Roman numeral V always means five, the Arabic five changes value based on its position in a sequence. So, a five followed by a zero means 50, a value ten times greater.

This seems like a small change, but it opens a whole new world for mathematics. With Arabic numbers, it’s possible to do more advanced calculations like multiplication, division, and algebra. It’s also much easier to keep financial records and do accounting. Adopting the idea of Arabic numbers was an innovation essential to launching Europe into a new age of trade, commerce, and scientific discovery.



Our desire to communicate drives rapid innovation

Baltimore, Maryland, 1843. The Whig Party holds a convention and nominates Henry Clay for president. It’s big news, and usually, it would take a train more than an hour to deliver the results to Washington, DC. But, this year, the message arrives in seconds. How? Thanks to the telegraph, a brand-new invention installed by Samuel Morse. It transmits information by sending electrical signals through a suspended wire. It’s the first practical innovation in the emerging field of electrified communication technology. The telephone arrives a few years later, in 1876. The wireless radio soon follows in the 1890s.

By the turn of the century, distant people are more connected than ever before. However, this is just the beginning. Over the following decades, innovations in communication and information technology will revolutionize the world. Before Morse tapped out the first dots and dashes through a telegraph, communication was either conducted face-to-face or through physical objects like letters and books. Ideas spread more slowly, and accessing information depended on which printed materials you could actually get your hands on. However, the advent of electronic communication like the telegraph, telephone, and eventually computers changed everything – and fast.

It’s hard to overstate how quickly new communication technology was adopted. The first telegraph line was completed in 1844. By 1855, there were 42,000 miles of lines in the United States alone. By the end of the 1870s, telegraph cables stretched across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Broadcast radio has a similar trajectory. It began with a single station in 1900 and grew to be the dominant form of public communication by the 1930s.

Computers also became an essential part of daily life at an astounding rate. This is partially due to how quickly computer technology improved and miniaturized. A computer’s processing ability is determined by how many transistors it has. Incremental improvements make transistors smaller and easier to produce, steadily allowing for more transistors to be housed in less space. This phenomenon is sometimes called Moore’s Law. So, in 1975, the average computer chip had 65,000 transistors. Today, that number is in the billions, and they’re much cheaper.

With the internet now connecting all the world’s computers, sharing information is easier than ever. This innovation has changed the political landscape by giving a huge amount of power to those who control communication technology. Now, the world’s most influential companies are search engines like Google and social media empires like Facebook.


Innovation relies on chance, collaboration, and recombination

The non-stick pans in your kitchen, the Gore-Tex coats worn in extreme environments, the fluorine gas chambers in the first atomic bombs. What do these all have in common? They’re all innovations based on polytetrafluoroethylene or PTFE. PTFE was first synthesized in 1938 – by accident. A scientist researching refrigerants stored tetrafluoroethylene gas at sub-zero temperatures. The chemical solidified into a hard substance that was unusually stable and heat-resistant. It didn’t work as a refrigerant, but other scientists found that in other contexts, it could be used for so much more. This story of PTFE is useful because it demonstrates the complex way innovation actually works.

Every story of innovation is different, but if you look closely, you’ll see they often follow a similar pattern. Many of the greatest innovations begin with a bit of serendipity. Someone has a lucky break, an unusual insight, or random occurrence. Then, others pick up on the discovery and apply it to new situations. Through trial and error, they apply the new idea or invention in different contexts until they find a practical use.

Consider the modern practice of using DNA as forensic evidence in criminal cases. No one set out specifically to create this innovation. Instead, it began in 1977, when Alec Jeffreys, a scientist at Leicester University, tried to develop a method using DNA to diagnose diseases. While collecting samples, he saw that DNA was a lot like fingerprints – that is, everyone’s genetic code was different. A chance discovery.

Meanwhile, the local police were struggling to solve a grisly murder. They wondered if Jeffery’s discovery could help solve the mystery. So, the scientist and the police worked together. They began collecting and analyzing more than 5,000 genetic samples from local suspects. They then compared them to DNA found at the crime scene. Eventually, they found a match. Case closed.

Because so much innovation follows this same pattern, it’s possible to identify conditions where it’s more likely to happen. Innovation thrives when people can cross paths, mingle, and exchange ideas. That’s why, throughout history, universities, trading hubs, and major cities have consistently produced novel innovations. By bringing different people with different expertise, perspectives, and cultures together in one place, these contexts foster the type of interactions that push innovation forward.


Innovation doesn’t always come from the top down

In 1924, the British government wanted to build a civilian airship capable of traveling across oceans. This raised the question: should the task be handled by the government or by private industry? They decided to try both approaches. Parliament contracted a government lab and a private firm, Vickers, to build two ships. How did this experiment play out? Well, by 1930, Vickers had designed the R100, a light, fast, and efficient aircraft. It traveled to Canada and back with no problems. Meanwhile, the government lab built the R101, a heavier, more costly ship. On its maiden voyage to Karachi, Pakistan, it only made it to France before crashing, killing 48 passengers.

These two very different outcomes illustrate an important point. When it comes to innovation, direct government oversight and control isn't always the answer. There’s a popular notion that innovation requires guidance and funding directly from the state. This argument posits that private industry, in a constant quest for easy profits, will avoid the costly research and development necessary to create truly new ideas. Instead, firms will hoard their patents and simply rehash old products. But is this true? Not exactly. While it’s true that government-directed research makes great discoveries, it often takes the ingenuity of private enterprise to turn them into practical innovations. Consider the internet. The basic components of computer networking were created by the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency, an American government lab. However, the world wide web didn’t take off as a household necessity until private firms like Cisco began to experiment with the technology in the 1980s and 1990s.

This dynamic occurs because big government projects often aren’t sensitive to the needs or desires of everyday people. Additionally, they can be slow to adopt new, outside-the-box ideas. However, big companies can also suffer this tendency. That’s why even giant firms are sometimes usurped by plucky start-ups.

Remember Kodak? This company was once the undisputed master of the photography industry. Film cameras were their flagship product. So, in 1975, when one of their scientists built an early version of a digital camera, his innovation was ignored. The higher-ups just didn’t see the potential in his bulky, electronic gizmo. Yet, smaller companies did. And they developed their own products, which took over the market. Thus, Kodak missed the digital photography revolution and filed for bankruptcy in 2012.


Innovation will always face resistance

Take a stroll through your grocery store’s dairy aisle. Here, you’ll see a wide selection of both butters and margarines sitting side-by-side in perfect harmony. The choice of spread is up to you. This wasn’t always the case. When margarine was first invented in 1869, it caused an uproar. The oily spread was both cheaper and more stable than butter. The dairy industry, fearing the competition, launched a vicious campaign against it. The National Dairy Council even faked studies showing it was dangerous. By the 1940s, two-thirds of American states had banned this innocuous staple.

Of course, the fervor eventually subsided, and margarine became an accepted foodstuff. Yet, this butter battle shows that even harmless new creations can stoke controversy. When a truly novel idea or invention arrives on the scene, it will often be rejected. This is because everyday people often fear change. Also, established industries don’t want to risk losing their supremacy. This is why horse breeders fought against tractors, ice-harvesters tried to stifle refrigeration technology, and some musicians initially wanted to ban radio stations from playing recorded music.

One way interest groups try to slow innovation is by sowing fears about safety and security. Consider the case of genetically modified organisms or GMOs. GMOs, such as vitamin-A-enriched golden rice, have the potential to bring cheaper nutrition to people all over the world. Yet, groups ideologically opposed to genetic modification, like Greenpeace, lobby hard against their production, citing sometimes flimsy evidence that these foods are dangerous.

Another way innovation is held back is through the overly aggressive application of intellectual property laws. When applied correctly, these laws, such as copyrights and patents, incentivize innovation by giving creators exclusive use of their ideas for a short time. This allows the original innovators to profit.

Yet, as we know, innovation requires sharing ideas and building on the work of others. Unfortunately, copyrights have been steadily extended, making this process more difficult. In the United States, a copyright used to last 14 years. In 1976, it was extended to last the life of the author plus 50 years. In 1998, 50 was extended again to 70 years. These laws no longer benefit the original creator post-mortem, but they do keep good ideas locked away from potential new uses.


Innovation is lacking in the West but booming elsewhere

In much of the world, the past few centuries have been filled with astounding leaps in innovation. In mere generations, Western countries have gone from largely agrarian economies to electrified, industrialized powerhouses. Even now, every day seems to bring novel developments in sectors like communications and computer technology.

Yet, alongside these changes, other sectors are strangely stagnant. In the realm of transportation, not much has changed. In 1958, the average commercial aircraft traveled at 600 miles per hour. Today, they move at roughly the same rate. There have been upgrades around the margins to aspects like fuel efficiency, but the fundamentals are untouched.

The business world, too, is less dynamic. In the United States, new businesses made up 12 percent of the economy in 1980. In 2010, they only accounted for 8 percent. Across the Atlantic, things are even staler. Looking at Europe’s 100 most valuable businesses, only two of them are younger than 40 years old. Most industries seem more focused on protecting current profits than bold new ideas.

So, where is innovation occurring? Mostly in rising nations like China. For the past few decades, this country has poured resources and manpower into urbanization and new technologies. Now Chinese firms like Tencent and Alibaba are at the forefront of growth industries like social media and financial services. Moreover, Chinese universities are making huge strides in fields like gene editing and artificial intelligence.

Can the Western world keep up? Maybe. It would require a renewed spirit of innovation. Companies will need to take more risks, workers will need to put in more hours, and governments will need to foster the free and open exchange of ideas that fueled past booms. All that, plus a little luck, will put innovation back on the agenda.


Image - Bright spark: detail of an 1879 illustration depicting Thomas Edison's lightbulb 
CREDIT: Getty Images



The book called 'Stolen Focus' by the British journalist Johann Hari, takes a close look at what’s happening, and what’s happened to our collective attention. Hari argues that we’re all becoming lost in our own lives, which feel more and more like a parade of diversions. And it seems to be getting worse and worse every year.

In Stolen Focus, Hari sets out on a global investigative journey into our shortening attention spans. Drawing on more than two hundred interviews with the world's leading experts on attention problems Stolen Focus moves beyond individual solutions towards a collective understanding of a problem facing us all. Only by first solving the attention crisis Hari argues can we turn to fixing the issues we care about most and sustain the attention to build a better society.

Johann Hari is a writer and journalist. He has written for the New York Times, Le Monde, the Guardian, and other newspapers. He was a columnist for The Independent and the Huffington Post, and has won awards for his war reporting.


Key learnings

Our attention spans are shrinking as a result of our accelerated pace of life and speed of communication. The internet, especially the rise of apps and platforms that prey on our focus, has supercharged this attention drain. And it’s not due to a personal flaw or individual weakness. Most of these attention-grabbing methods are intentional; they’re elaborately designed for the very purpose of keeping you distracted. To combat them we need large-scale, systemic change – on an individual level, as well as from the tech designers that invented these systems in the first place.


It’s not just you – everyone is struggling to focus

Unless you’re living off the grid, you’ve probably noticed that it’s getting increasingly difficult to focus. You’re busy all the time, yet you struggle to actually get anything done.

In 2016, Sune Lehmann was having these exact problems. His capacity for deep focus was dwindling, and he was more susceptible to distractions than ever before. Lehmann is a professor at Denmark’s Technical University – so he didn’t simply dismiss the nagging feeling that his concentration was waning. Instead, he spearheaded a study to find out if there was actually evidence to back up his suspicion.

By analyzing various metrics across online platforms, Lehmann and his team discovered something interesting: In 2013, conversation topics trended on Twitter for an average of 17.5 hours before people lost interest and moved on to a new topic. By 2016, that number had dwindled to 11.6 hours. That’s a six-hour decrease in only three years. The study records similar results across platforms like Google and Reddit as well. In short, the more time we’ve spent in online spaces, the shorter our attention spans have become.

So, is it really just the internet that’s eroding our focus? Well, yes. But also no. See, Lehmann also analyzed every book that’s been uploaded to Google Books between the 1880s and today. And he found that this phenomenon actually predates the internet. With every passing decade, trending topics appear and fade with increasing speed. Lehmann’s study is indicative rather than comprehensive, of course. And measuring these metrics isn’t a definitive way to map our evolving attention spans. But, if we accept the premise that our concentration is suffering, the next question is: Why?

It’s difficult to pinpoint precisely, but a good jumping-off point is what think-tank director Robert Colvile calls “The Great Acceleration.” Essentially, the way we receive information is speeding up. In the nineteenth century, for example, news could take days to travel from place to place. Then, technologies like the telegraph, radio, and television sped up the spread of information. On top of this, our information inputs – the different modes through which we receive information – have multiplied. In 1986, the average Westerner ingested the equivalent of 40 newspapers a day through the various available information inputs. By 2004, that figure had risen to an astonishing 174 newspapers worth of information. Today, that figure is almost certainly much higher. The internet has undeniably supercharged this acceleration. Now, information is not only available to us all the time; it actually intrudes on our lives through the ceaseless pings and notifications coming from our laptops and smartphones.

And our brains just haven’t caught up with this acceleration. Research suggests they never will. Our capacity for focus is an emergent field of study. But research in the area of speed-reading suggests that there’s a finite limit to how quickly we can process information. And, as neuroscientists point out, the cognitive capacity of the human brain has not significantly changed in the last 40,000 years. The amount of information we put into our brains has, however, stratospherically increased. It’s really no wonder we sometimes find it difficult to focus.


Apps and online platforms are addictive by design, not by accident

Facebook, Instagram, Twitter – the fact that these apps and other online platforms suck so much of your time isn’t a design flaw. They’re supposed to be addictive. After all, there’s a reason Silicon Valley calls its customers “users.” And where did this design originate? It originated at the Persuasive Technologies Lab at Stanford University. In the early 2000s, the lab asked whether the theories of influential behavioral psychologists could be incorporated into computer code – in other words, it asked whether tech can change human behavior. And the answer to that question was yes tech can change human behavior.

One of the psychologists studied in the lab was B. F. Skinner. Skinner was famous for the experiments he conducted on rats. He’d present a rat with a meaningless task, like pushing a button. But the rat showed no interest in doing this. So Skinner modified the task. Now, every time the rat pressed the button, it would be rewarded with a pellet of food. Rewards would motivate animals, Skinner found, to carry out tasks that had no intrinsic meaning to them. Skinner inspired the creation of other buttons you might recognize: like buttons, share buttons, and comment buttons. Those little hearts and emojis and retweet buttons aren’t design quirks; they’re programming us to use social media in addictive ways by rewarding us for the time we spend on the platforms.

These buttons keep us engaging longer. But they’re only one of the many design elements geared at keeping us online. Here’s another one: the infinite scroll. Back in the early days of the internet, web pages were just that: pages. Sites often comprised multiple pages; when you got to the bottom of one, you clicked through to the next. The bottom of each page offered a built-in pause. If you wanted to keep browsing, you had to actively decide to click ahead.

That is, until Aza Raskin stepped in. Raskin invented the infinite scroll – the endlessly refreshing feed of content that now features on the interface of nearly every social media platform, giving the impression that there is a never-ending supply of content. If likes and shares encourage users to stay online longer, the infinite scroll encourages users to stay online in perpetuity.

Raskin, however, has come to regret his invention. At first, he thought the infinite scroll was elegant and efficient. But he became troubled when he noticed how it was changing online habits – including his own. Noticing that he was spending longer and longer on social media, Raskin started to do the math. He estimates that the infinite scroll induces the average user to spend 50 percent more time on platforms like Facebook and Twitter.

The business model of most of these platforms is predicated on time – or, as they call it, engagement. This refers to how much time a user spends interacting with a product. That’s the metric tech companies use to measure their success – not money, but minutes. But money does play a part, too. Because the longer you spend “engaging,” the more chances the companies have to sell advertisements. The more you engage, the more companies track your behavior and build a profile uniquely designed to target you with specific ads. We don’t pay for platforms like Facebook and Instagram with our money. But we do pay with another precious, finite commodity: our attention.

In Silicon Valley, time equals money. The money is theirs. And the time – the attention – is yours.



Algorithms privilege outrage over community

Online platforms erode our focus and exploit one of our most precious resources – our attention – for their own financial gain. But these same platforms can be a force for good, strengthening community and driving collective action.

To better understand this potential, let’s travel to the Complexo do Alemão favela in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The Brazilian government takes a militant approach to this crowded, low-income area, routinely sending in tanks to suppress unrest. And it’s an open secret that the police shoot to kill. When innocent kids get in the way of their bullets, the police plant drugs or weapons on them and claim self-defense.
Raull Santiago lives in Alemão. He also runs the Facebook page “Coletivo Papo Reto,” which collects and disseminates videos of the police shooting innocent people. The page has galvanized many favela-dwellers to rally against their treatment. And it has shifted the tide of public opinion in Brazil, where favelas like Alemão are often reviled. But the situation in Alemão has only gotten worse since the election of Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro. And here’s the thing: Bolsonaro’s victory, like Coletivo Papo Reto’s success, can also be partly attributed to Facebook. Bolsonaro’s campaign inundated social media with clickbaity, fear-mongering campaigns – and he ended up getting elected.

What connects us can also divide us. Lately, it feels like online platforms have been much more intent on dividing than connecting. And it all has to do with algorithms. The content you see on this infinitely refreshing page isn’t ordered chronologically. It’s arranged by an algorithm that is programmed to feed us content that keeps us scrolling longer. It’s easier to disengage from calm, positive content. But if something strikes us as outrageous or controversial, we tend to keep looking. It’s part of a psychological phenomenon called negativity bias – that is, negative experiences impact us more than positive ones. So it’s in social media’s interest to literally provoke its users.

The algorithm has no ethics. It doesn’t condone or condemn; it just codes. But the people watching it feel, believe, and judge. For some, the more they’re exposed to misinformation, the more normal – even credible – it seems. A 2018 study that analyzed extreme right-wing militants in the US found that the majority of them were initially radicalized on YouTube.

You may not engage with misinformation online. You might put down your phone or close your laptop when you feel outraged by what you see online. You may choose not to spend your attention on provocative content. But this still affects you. See, when online platforms privilege divisive, shocking content, they also corrode our power for collective attention – our ability, as a society, to focus on issues that affect us.

Back in the ’70s, scientists discovered that there was a hole in the Ozone layer. It had been created by a group of chemicals called CFCs, which are commonly used in hairsprays. The scientists issued a warning: if the hole in the ozone grew, we would lose a crucial layer of protection against the sun’s rays. Life on earth as we knew it was at risk. Activists campaigned against the use of CFCs. They persuaded their fellow citizens to join the cause. Eventually, they put enough pressure on governments that the use of CFCs was banned. This is an environmental success story. But the outcome might have been different if we hadn’t focused our collective attention – first on the science, then on the arguments of our fellow citizens, and finally on the group effort of lobbying the governments for a total ban on CFCs. Would we be able to collectively train our focus on a similar issue today? Climate change poses a real and present danger to life on earth. But as a species, we can’t seem to absorb the science – or even agree on whether we should be listening to scientists in the first place.

Social media can be a powerful force for good. But rather than harness this force, platforms like Facebook are intent on exploiting our attention – and, as a consequence, they’re sowing division and controversy.

Recently, Facebook conducted an internal investigation called “Common Ground.” Its aim was to uncover whether the company’s algorithms really did promote controversy and misinformation to keep users engaged. According to the report, the findings were very clear: “Our algorithms exploit the human brain’s attraction to divisiveness.” Facebook hasn’t done very much about this disturbing finding, however. And neither have we. We’re too busy infinitely scrolling.


Ditch multitasking – recovering focus is about finding flow

It’s easy – and not inaccurate – to blame our shrinking attention spans on our devices and the easy access they offer to an attention-sucking online world. But, like an artfully cropped Instagram snap, that’s not the whole picture. See, there’s a fundamental flaw in the way we frame “focus.”

We live in an accelerating, consumerist society – one that values speed and output. And in this climate, we’re encouraged to “quantify” our attention in terms of what immediate results it yields. Our focus is a resource that allows us to produce, to earn, to tick items off our to-do lists. And that’s where multitasking comes in. The more we can simultaneously achieve, the better our focus is spent. So why not distribute our attention across several tasks at once? Well because, as it turns out, humans are really bad at multitasking. The word “multitask” was coined by computer scientists in the ’60s to describe the function of computers with multiple processors. It was never meant to be applied to humans. After all, we only have one processor: our brain.

When we multitask, we’re not simultaneously performing several tasks at once. We’re switching between them at hyperspeed. And every switch incurs what’s called a “switch-cost” effect. When you switch between tasks – or when you’re interrupted mid-task – your brain needs to recalibrate, which decreases your mental performance. A study commissioned by Hewlett Packard compared a group who worked on a task uninterrupted with a group that was distracted during the course of their task. The study found that members of the distracted group temporarily dropped an average of ten IQ points while they were completing their task.

In a work climate that values multitasking as a sign of peak productivity, distraction is practically encouraged. We’re constantly answering emails, participating in multiple conversations about multiple projects, and working across three or four different computer screens. In fact, in the US, the average white-collar worker spends 40 percent of their time engaging in so-called multitasking.

Luckily, there is an antidote to multitasking – a way of approaching tasks that cultivates deep focus. The psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi first identified this state, which he called “flow.” You find your flow, Csikszentmihalyi theorized, when you become so absorbed by a task that you lose all sense of your surroundings and are able to access a deep well of internal focus. In flow, your focus becomes deeper and better, and you’re far less susceptible to distractions.

The good news, according to Cskiszentmihalyi, is that everyone can access flow – as long as they meet a few key conditions. 
  1. First, the task you’re tackling needs to be intrinsically rewarding; when you’re in flow, it’s the process rather than the product that engages you.
  2. Second, the task should be challenging enough to demand your full attention – but not so difficult that you’re tempted to give up on it.
  3. Finally, monotasking is essential. To tap into that wellspring of focus, you need to direct all your mental energy toward a single task.

High-performing individuals like athletes, musicians, and scientists often attribute their achievements to their ability to access flow states. But in a society that has decided multitasking is a virtue – and that values speed and output over deep focus – the average person is finding it harder and harder to achieve flow.



We can get our attention back

In a world obsessed with multitasking, making room for other forms of focus, like flow, is a radical act. And it’s possible – but it’s not as simple as slowing down and switching off. Activating airplane mode won’t do much as long as you live and work in a system that encourages you to multitask, privileges productivity at all costs, and encourages you to spend increasing amounts of time in online spaces designed to sap your focus. It’s the system itself that needs to change.

Luckily, change may be on the horizon in Silicon Valley, where disillusioned designers are beginning to push back against our attention crisis. Former Google engineer Tristan Harris, as well as Aza Raskin – yes, the same Aza who designed the infinite scroll – want to see a non-predatory social media rise from the ashes of our current attention spans. Social media was designed to steal our attention. But Harris and Raskin are certain it could be redesigned to give our attention back. What would this new social media landscape look like? They have a few ideas.

The infinite scroll would be turned off, for one thing. All those little “rewards” like hearts and likes and shares might be turned off, too. You could instead receive a daily roundup of what’s happened on your feed, designed to discourage you from checking multiple times a day. And technology’s power to influence human behavior could be used for good. You could tell the platform how much time you wanted to spend online, and it could work with you to achieve that goal. It could help you achieve other goals, too. Want to try going vegan? The platform could connect you with online groups that share vegan recipes. Concerned about climate change? The platform could link you up with local activist groups, both on and offline. 

Around the globe, real pushback against our collective attention crisis is seeing inspiring results. Perpetual Guardian, a New Zealand company, instituted a four-day work week. Employees have since reported a better work-life balance, the ability to focus deeper for longer, and decreased susceptibility to distractions. And it’s not just employees who are reaping the benefits. Shorter workdays and workweeks enable deep focus instead of performative multitasking, and they encourage workers to avoid workplace distractions – like sneaking a scroll through social media when the boss isn’t looking. In fact, when a Toyota factory in Gothenburg cut its workday by two hours, workers actually produced at 114 percent of their previous capacity, and the factory reported 25 percent more profit.

In France, the escalating demands on our focus are seen for what they are: a health crisis. French doctors grew concerned about the rising number of patients experiencing “le burnout” and took those concerns to the government. Now, companies with over 50 employees have to formally agree on the limits of their workweek – meaning it may actually be illegal for a French boss to send their employees emails over the weekend.

In the big picture, these are all small changes. But they should leave us feeling optimistic. They show that there are solutions to this collective attention crisis. We can reclaim our attention . . . if only we can focus on the task at hand.


Actionable advice

Don’t focus harder on your task – instead, let your mind wander.

Doing nothing is actually a valuable form of focus because it facilitates creativity, which arises when you make unexpected mental connections and associations. The longer you can let your thoughts drift, the more unexpected associations your mind can create – which just might help you reclaim some of your stolen focus.






This is a practical guide that contains a library of hands-on techniques for rapidly testing new business ideas. 'Testing Business Ideas' explains how to use experimentation to transform your bright idea into a profitable business venture. It will help you to save precious time and money by testing how feasible, desirable, and viable your plans are. It will help you to dramatically reduce the risk and increase the likelihood of success for any new business venture. This book shows leaders how to encourage an experimentation mindset within their organisation and make experimentation a continuous, repeatable process.

This is written by David Bland and Alex Osterwalder. David J. Bland is an author and founder based in Silicon Valley who helps companies find growth using “Lean Startup” methods, design thinking, and business model innovation. Alex Osterwalder is a lead author of the international bestsellers Business Model Generation and Value Proposition Design; #7 on the “Thinkers 50” list; passionate entrepreneur; and in-demand speaker.



Key Learnings

In the world of business, a good idea isn't enough. Instead, you'll need lots of good ideas. Then, you can carefully select the most promising concept to take forward. Once you've decided on a direction, it's time to test your chosen ideas and concepts by using reliable, cost-effective experiments. This is the best way of finding out whether your idea works in practice as well as in theory. It's important to know your hypotheses. When you formulate a hypothesis, it's useful to know what kind of questions you're asking. There are three different types of hypotheses that broadly address three questions. Feasibility hypotheses concern questions surrounding whether it is possible for you to get a venture up and running with the resources and constraints you have. Viability hypotheses will answer questions about the profitability of your idea. Finally, desirability hypotheses will address questions around whether your target audience actually wants your product or service.


Table of Contents

Design
  • Design the team (p. 3)
  • Shape the idea (p. 15)
Test
  • Hypothesize (p. 27)
  • Experiment (p. 41)
  • Learn (p. 49)
  • Decide (p. 59)
  • Manage (p. 65)
Experiments
  • Select an Experiment (p. 91)
  • Discovery (p. 101)
  • Validation (p. 231)
Mindset
  • Avoid Experiment Pitfalls (p. 313)
  • Lead Through Experimentation (p. 317)
  • Organize for Experiments (p.323)


Design

Design the team - The best teams are diverse, open-minded, and entrepreneurial

If you're going to test your business ideas, you'll need a great team in place. Creating a great team starts with great design, and the best entrepreneurs proactively design their teams. They think carefully about bringing together people who have cross-functional skill set that encompasses all or most of the competencies that a fledgling business needs.

Cross-Functional Skillset
A cross-functional team has all core abilities needed to ship the product and learn from customers. A common basic example of a cross-functional team consists of design, product and engineering.

Commonly Required Skills to Test Business Ideas
  • Design
  • Product
  • Tech
  • Legal
  • Data
  • Sales
  • Marketing
  • Research
  • Finance

Entrepreneurial Experience
It's not a coincidence that successful businesses benefit from those who already have entrepreneurial experience.

Diversity
The best teams tend to be diverse. They are filled with people from a range of backgrounds - of different genders, ethnicities, ages, and careers. Diversity is so important because a successful business has an impact on people's lives and on society as a whole - and society is made up of people from all walks of life. If the business team doesn't reflect this reality, then their decision-making and their testing will contain inherent biases.



Team Behaviour

Team behavior can be unpacked into six categories that are leading indicators of team success.

Successful Teams Exhibit Six Behaviours
  1. Data Influenced - You don't have to be data driven, but you need to be data influenced. Teams no longer have the luxury of burning down a product backlog of features. The insights generated from data shape the backlog and strategy.
  2. Experiment Driven - Teams are willing to be wrong and experiment. 
  3. Customer Centric - To create new businesses today, teams have to know "the why" behind the work. This begins with being constantly connected to the customer. 
  4. Entrepreneurial - Move fast and validate things. Teams have a sense of urgency and create momentum toward a viable outcome. This includes creative problem-solving at speed.
  5. Iterative Approach - Teams aim for a desired result by means of a repeated cycle of operations. The iterative approach assumes you may not know the solution, so you iterate through different tactics to achieve the outcome.
  6. Question Assumptions - Teams have to be willing to challenge the status quo and business as usual. They aren't afraid to test out a disruptive business model that will lead to big results, as compared to always playing it safe. 



Team Environment

Teams needs a supportive environment to explore new business opportunities. They cannot be held to a standard where failure is not an option. Failure will occur and the goal is to learn faster than the competition and put that learning into action. Leaders need to intentionally design an environment where this can occur. 

The Team Needs to be:
  • Dedicated - teams need an environment in which they can be dedicated to work. Multi-tasking across several projects will silently kill any progress and preferably a small team.
  • Funded - It's unrealistic to expect these teams to function without a budget or funding. Experiments cost money. Incrementally fund the teams using a venture-capital style approach, based on the learnings they share during stakeholder reviews.
  • Autonomous - Teams need to be given space to own the work. Do not micromanage them to the extent where it slows down their progress. Instead, give them space to give on accounting of how they are making progress towards the goal. 

The Company Needs to Provide:
Support
  • Leadership - Teams need an environment that has the right type of leadership. support. A facilitative leadership style is ideal here because you do not know the solution. Lead with questions, not answers, and be mindful that the bottleneck is always at the top of the bottle.
  • Coaching - Teams need coaching, especially if this is their first journey together. Coaches, either internal or external, can help guide the teams when they are stuck trying to find the next experiment to run. Teams that have only used interviews and surveys can benefit from coaches who've seen a wide range of experiments.

Access
  • Customers - Teams need access to customers. The trend over the years has been to isolate teams from the customer, but in order to solve customer problems, this can no longer be the case. If teams keep getting pushback on customer access, they'll eventually just guess and build it anyway.
  • Resources - Teams need access to resources in order to be successful. Constraints are good, but starving a team will not yield results. They need enough resources to make progress and generate evidence. Resources can be physical or digital in nature, depending on the new business idea.

Direction
  • Strategy - Teams need a direction and strategy, or it'll be very difficult to make informed pivot, persevere, or kill decisions on the new business idea. Without a clear coherent strategy, you'll mistake being busy with making progress,
  • Guidance - Teams need constraints to focus their experimentation. Whether it's an adjacent market or creating a new one, to unlock new revenue teams need direction on where they will play. 
  • KPIs - Teams need key performance indicators (KPIs) to help everyone understand whether they are making progress toward a goal. Without signposts along the way, it may be challenging to know if you should invest in the new business.



Team Alignment

Teams often lack a shared goal, context, and language when being formed. This can be devastating later on, if not resolved during the team formation and kickoff. The 'Team Alignment Map', created by Stefano Mastrogiacomo, is a visual tool that allows participants to prepare for action: hold more productive meetings and structure the content of their conversations. It can help teams have more productive kickoffs, with better engagement and increased business success. 






Shape the Idea


Business Design

In the design loop you shape and reshape your business idea to turn it into the best possible value proposition and business model. Your first iterations are based on your intuition and starting point (product idea, technology, market opportunity, etc.). Subsequent iterations are based on evidence and insights from the testing loop. 

The design loop has 3 steps:
  1. Ideate - You try to come up with as many alternative ways as possible to use your initial intuition or insights from testing your idea into a strong business. Don't fall in love with your first ideas.
  2. Business Prototype - Narrow down the alternatives from ideation with business prototypes. When you start out, use rough prototypes. Subsequently, use the Value Proposition Canvas and Business Model Canvas to make your ideas clear and tangible. 
  3. Assess - In the last step of the design loop you assess the design of your business prototypes. Ask questions like "Is this the best way to address our customer's jobs, pains, and gains?" or "Is this the best way to monetise our idea?" or Does this best take into account what we have learned from testing?" Once you are satisfied with the design of your business prototypes you start testing in the field or go back to testing, if you are working on subsequent iterations. 
 

The Business Model Canvas

Use the Business Model Canvas to shape ideas into a business model so you can define, test, and manage risk. I helps define the Desirability, Feasibility, and Viability of an idea. 



Customer Segments
Describe the different groups of people of organisations you aim to reach and serve.

Value Propositions
Describe the bundle of products and services that create value for a specific customer segment.

Channels
Describe how a company communicates with and reaches its customer segments to deliver a value proposition.

Customer Relationships
Describe the types of relationships a company establishes with specific customer segments.

Revenue Streams
Describe the cash a company generates from each customer segment.

Key Resources
Describe the most important assets required to make a business model work.

Key Activities
Describe the most important things a company must do to make its business model work. 

Key Partners
Describe the network of suppliers and partners that make the business model work. 

Cost Structure
Describe all costs incurred to operate a business model.


The Value Proposition Canvas

Much like the Business Model Canvas, the same goes for the Value Proposition Canvas. This is another tool to help understand the customer and how your products and services create value. 



Value Map (Left side of the map)
Describes the features of a specific value proposition in your business model in a structured and detailed way.
  • Products and Services - List the products and services your value proposition is built around.
  • Gain Creators - Describe how your products and services create customer gains.
  • Pain Relievers - Describe how your products and services alleviate customer pains.

Customer Profile (Right side of the map)
Describes a specific customer segment in your business in a structured and detailed way.
  • Customer Jobs - Describe what customers are trying to get done in their work and in their lives.
  • Gains - Describe the outcomes customers want to achieve or the concrete benefits they are seeking.
  • Pains - Describe the bad outcomes, risk, and obstacles related to customer jobs.


Test

Hypothesise 

  1. Identify the Hypotheses Underlying Your Idea - To test a business idea you first have to make explicit all the risks that your idea won't work. You need to turn the assumptions underlying your idea into clear hypotheses that you can test. 
  2. Prioritise Most Important Hypotheses - To identify the most important hypotheses to test first, you need to ask 2 questions. First, "What is the most important hypothesis that needs to be true for my idea to work?" Second, "For which hypotheses do I lack concrete evidence from the field?"

Business hypothesis is defined as:
  • An assumption that your value proposition, business model, or strategy builds on.
  • What you need to learn about to understand if your business idea might work.

Creating a good hypothesis
When creating hypotheses you believe to be true for your business idea, begin by writing the phrase "We believe that..."

e.g. "We believe that millennial parents will subscribe to monthly educational science projects for their kids."

Be mindful that if you create all of your hypotheses in the "We believe that..." format, you can fall into a confirmation bias trap. You'll be constantly trying to prove what you believe, instead of trying to refute it. In order to prevent this from occurring create a few hypotheses that try to disprove your assumptions.  

e.g. "We believe that millennial parents won't subscribe to monthly educational science projects for their kids."

You can even test these competing hypotheses at the same time. This is especially helpful when team members cannot agree on which hypothesis to test. 

Characteristics of a good hypothesis
A well-formed business hypothesis describes a testable, precise, and discrete thing you want to investigate.
  • Testable - when it can be shown true (validated) or false (invalidated), based on evidence (and guided by experience).
  • Precise - when you know what success looks like. Ideally, it describes the precise what, who, and when of your assumptions.
  • Discrete - when it describes only one distinct, testable, and precise thing you want to investigate.



Types of Hypotheses
  • Desirable - "Do they want this?" The risk is that the market a business is targeting is too small; that too few customers want the value proposition, or that the company can't reach, acquire, and retain targeted customers.
  • Feasible - "Can we do this?" The risk is that a business can't manage, scale, or get access to key resources (technology, IP, brand, etc.), key activities or key partners.
  • Viable - "Should we do this?" The risk that a business revenue cannot generate more revenue than costs (revenue stream and cost structure).
Both the Value Proposition Canvas and the Business Model Canvas help identify the desirable, feasible and viable hypotheses.











To be continued...


Image source: Strategyzer Testing Business Ideas 

 


In 'The Serendipity Mindset - The Art and Science of Creating Good Luck', Christian Busch explains that serendipity isn’t about luck in the sense of simple randomness. It’s about seeing links that others don’t, combining these observations in unexpected and strategic ways, and learning how to detect the moments when apparently random or unconnected ideas merge to form new opportunities. Busch explores serendipity from a rational and scientific perspective and argues that there are identifiable approaches we can use to foster the conditions to let serendipity grow.

Drawing from biology, chemistry, management, and information systems, and using examples of people from all walks of life, Busch illustrates how serendipity works and explains how we can train our own serendipity muscle and use it to turn the unexpected into opportunity. Once we understand serendipity, Busch says, we become curators of it, and luck becomes something that no longer just happens to us—it becomes a force that we can grasp, shape, and hone. Full of exciting ideas and strategies, The Serendipity Mindset offers a clear blueprint for how we can cultivate serendipity to increase innovation, influence, and opportunity in every aspect of our lives.

Dr Christian Busch, is an internationally known expert in the areas of innovation and entrepreneurship. He is the Director of the Global Economy Program at New York University’s Center for Global Affairs, and also teaches at the London School of Economics. A cofounder of Leaders on Purpose and the Sandbox Network – and former co-director of the LSE’s Innovation Lab – he has worked with senior executives around the world.


Key Learnings

Optimism. Open-mindedness. Curiosity. Perseverance. Adaptability. These are some of the core qualities of the serendipity mindset. With this mindset, you can seek out and embrace the unexpected and use these unusual moments to make new and exciting connections. When you begin to see the world with this frame of mind, you’ll begin to see that each and every day is filled with the unexpected, and chances to spark new serendipitous ideas and innovations. This holds true for businesses as well. With a few changes to culture and environment, you can begin to set the stage for more innovation and fortuitous events to transpire.


There are several kinds of serendipity, but they're all different than "blind" luck of the draw - they're about creating "smart luck"

What is serendipity? The word itself dates back to 1754 when British writer Horace Walpole used it to describe a kind of discovery that was made unexpectedly, by accident, or through a certain foresighted wisdom known as 'sagacity'. This definition has more or less stood the test of time. However, think of serendipity as a positive occurrence, one made when your actions collide with chance. This means serendipity is different from pure chance, or luck on its own.

Generally speaking, there are three types of serendipity:

1. The first is Archimedes Serendipity. 
This is when you’re looking for a solution to a specific problem and the solution arrives in an unexpected way.
The name comes from the story of how Archimedes solved the problem of King Hiero’s crown. King Hiero had hired a goldsmith to make a crown – and he’d given him a precise amount of gold to make it from. The goldsmith forged the crown, and it weighed exactly as much as the gold he’d been given, but King Hiero grew suspicious. What if it was a forgery? So Hiero called upon the brilliant Archimedes to test its authenticity. Archimedes thought it over. And during his brainstorming, he went to the public baths. Here, serendipity struck. Archimedes noticed how the water levels rose as people lowered themselves into the baths – and, in a flash, he knew how to test the crown. Gold is denser than silver. This means that, if a pure-silver crown and a pure-gold crown weighed the same amount, the pure-silver crown would be larger. And a larger crown would displace more water than a smaller crown. Thus, Archimedes correctly reasoned, if Hiero’s crown had been diluted with silver, it would displace more water than if it were pure gold.

2. The second type of serendipity is Post-It Note Serendipity. 
This is when a solution is unexpectedly found for a problem that wasn’t even being considered at the time.
The name comes from the Post-It note. They were invented when Dr. Spencer Silver, a researcher for 3M, was trying to develop a new type of strong glue. One attempt fell short. It wasn’t very sticky at all. But Silver was curious to discover the potential for this weak glue. It eventually became the perfect ingredient for the Post-It Note.

3. The third type is the Thunderbolt Serendipity. 
As the name suggests, this is when you’re struck by a solution out of nowhere. You weren’t examining any specific problem or researching any particular solution. You were just going about your day when out of the blue an idea and exciting new opportunity presented itself.

Sometimes, serendipity might be a combination or variation of these types. But no matter what, these aren’t cases of blind luck. Hitting upon serendipity is something you can facilitate, as long as you have the right mindset.


Serendipity is usually about connecting dots that have previously remained elusive

How we interpret or look back upon serendipity is important. In fact, it can make a big difference in the likelihood of serendipity occurring in the future. For example, we shouldn’t think of serendipity as a singular event, even if it is one of those thunderbolt experiences. Instead, we should think of it as a process. Often serendipity is the result of seeds that were planted weeks, months, or years in advance. And it always requires something of you – whether it’s noticing a value that hasn’t been seen before, or drawing a conclusion that hasn’t been reached before.

One of history’s famous accounts of serendipity was the discovery of penicillin. One day, Dr. Alexander Flemming returned to the lab to find that some of the petri dishes had accidentally been left uncovered, sitting on a windowsill. He’d been working with an infectious bacteria and was surprised to find that the dishes had become moldy, and around that mold, the bacteria had vanished. Now, some doctors would have just focused on the mistake of leaving the dishes uncovered and gotten back to what they were doing in the first place. In fact, other scientists had already noticed that mold could kill bacteria, but they didn’t connect the dots and explore this any further.

But Flemming was curious. He saw the opportunity here. He was open to the possibilities and shared his ideas with trusted colleagues. This curiosity and openness was key to the serendipitous results. So, this is one of the first things to be aware of when it comes to cultivating the right mindset: being perceptive, curious, open-minded, and eager to see opportunities where others might see only negativity. This also requires an observant and perceptive attitude – the kind that not only notices something unusual, but can connect that bit of information with something else.


Being attuned and alert to serendipity means letting go of ingrained biases

Do you ever find yourself being a glass-half-empty type of person? It can happen to the best of us. In fact, having biases and preconceptions goes hand-in-hand with human nature, but that doesn’t mean it’s helpful in life. As far as serendipity goes, having strict, unbending preconceptions can be a big hindrance.

There are four biases that can stand in the way of serendipity:

1. The first is underestimating the unexpected. 
This is the kind of attitude where someone believes life is full of the predictable, the boring, and the expected. This attitude has been especially prevalent in the business world. Traditional strategy has generally centered around stability, and repeating what has worked in the past. But given the amount of data we now have access to, and how fast things are changing, it’s become clear that no matter how much you try to plan and prepare, the unexpected always happens.

2. The second bias is conforming to the majority. 
Again, this is a very natural bias to have. It’s safe and comfortable to stick to the majority opinions and ways of doing things. But this can easily lead to a self-censoring herd mentality that isn’t conducive to taking advantage of unexpected developments. Christian Busch works as a consultant for businesses, and one of his practices is to find a high-traffic spot somewhere in an office where he can sit at his laptop and eavesdrop on what people are saying. It might be next to a break room or the water cooler. It gives him a chance to get a sense of what the culture is like at the company. Is it one that promotes free-thinking or stifles it? If people are getting together and talking about how foolish it was for someone to speak up at a meeting and propose a new idea, then he knows this is a bad culture for serendipity and innovation.

3. The third bias is post-rationalism. 
A big reason for being skeptical about serendipity is that we tend to look back at an unusual occurrence and spin it into something predictable. This is related to “hindsight bias,” and it’s a very human thing to do. It’s more comfortable to think of everything that happens as being a sensible part of an ongoing narrative, not as a bunch of random, chaotic events.

4. The fourth bias is functional fixedness. 
This is when you develop skills or a certain expertise and that becomes the only way you want to do things. In other words, you want every problem to have one solution.


To stay alert and motivated, remain focused on a meaningful north star.

What motivates you on a day-to-day basis, money or something more meaningful? Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs was developed by the philosopher Abraham Maslow over 50 years ago, but it’s left a lasting impression and continues to influence many of today’s social theories.

In short, Maslow’s hierarchy suggests that people are first motivated by basic things like food and shelter. Once that is covered, people are then motivated by sex and relationships, and only later on, when all the lower needs are met, are they concerned with loftier things like existential fulfillment. It sounds logical, but this is an idea that is currently being challenged.

There’s a good reason for people wanting to be purpose-driven rather than money-driven: it feels a lot better and is more rewarding in the long run. Putting your true values to the side in order to show up for your day job can be exhausting. It takes energy to hide your true self from nine-to-five every day. The better path is to be authentic, stay true to yourself, and find a way to mix purpose with a paycheck. This is important for serendipity as well, because an exhausted mind isn’t going to be eager to spot the unexpected and make valuable connections. Instead, it’s the focused mind – one that is fixed on a north star, or a guiding principle that cultivated serendipity.

Ideally, your north star is an ongoing purpose, interest, or curiosity that can continue to inspire you indefinitely. It could be as simple as helping those who are marginalised or disenfranchised.
With your north star in place, your serendipity will always have a purpose – you’ll always have a direction on how to act. So when the unexpected does arise, you’ll be well prepared on how to take advantage of it.


You can increase the chances of serendipity in simple ways.

Essentially, you want to create possibilities, and you can do this in a number of ways, no matter what your current circumstances are. There are many people who’ve sent out a mass email to everyone in their contact list, or to people they’ve never met, in the hopes of having a serendipitous result. You may be surprised to know how often this works. Other times, it may be a chance meeting in an elevator or in a Zoom conference, but such encounters require an optimistic willingness to take chances, be sociable, and introduce yourself. Patience is also required. Sometimes, it may take years before the business card you handed someone turns into a case of life-changing serendipity. 


There are easy steps for planting the seeds for serendipity to occur.

Having a strong and healthy network of diverse people helps plant the seeds for serendipity. This kind of network doesn't need to be massive, by it does need to be regularly maintained. While conferences and online platforms can be good for establishing casual connections, meaningful ones need to be kept in good condition through periodic emails, conversations, or some kind of communication to make sure they don't wither away.


Serendipity can take time to develop, so patience is often required.

Another characteristic of the serendipity mindset is grit, or perseverance. The road to serendipity is often paved with rejection, failed experiments, and near misses. Many entrepreneurs will tell you that they were turned away countless times before they finally found the idea that clicked with investors. You need tenacity. Not only because it can take time for the right opportunities to present themselves, but because it often takes time for your brain to connect those important dots. While having a good supply of diverse people around you can be a vital part of setting the stage for serendipity, it also takes patience and perseverance.


Fostering serendipity involves creating a safe space for the mixing of new ideas from diverse minds.

Increasingly, a lot of businesses are wanting to facilitate as much serendipity as possible. They know that things are changing fast these days and relying on stability and consistency just doesn’t make sense anymore. So, what kind of culture and structures do make sense? Basically, you don’t want the kind of company where people are ridiculed for coming up with new or ambitious ideas. You want to create a safe space, where people not only feel free to speak their minds, but where they can also feel free to experiment and fail without fear of being reprimanded or losing their jobs.

This kind of environment often needs to be inspired from the top down. So it’s up to the leaders to tell everyone that the company needs their voices and ideas in order to succeed. If serendipity is to occur, it’s going to require the free sharing of ideas.

Many companies are also forgoing the usual hierarchical structure to empower employees and get them to feel comfortable with making their own decisions. This is also a good move for fostering serendipity, as sometimes the window of opportunity for taking advantage of serendipitous moments is fleeting and requires quick action. 

Businesses are also taking down the walls that used to exist between different departments, and perhaps no company offers a better example of this than the animation studio Pixar. Understanding that mixing diverse ideas is key to innovation, the studio was purposefully designed to maximize cross-pollination between the three main departments – animators, executives, and computer scientists. Built around a central atrium, it forces these three departments to mix and mingle every day.

Ensuring your employees can interact and share feedback is vital. But it’s also important to listen to the customer. Don’t ignore feedback, even if it’s negative. With the serendipity mindset, problems, complaints, failures can be triggers for the most wonderful and creative outcomes.


 


'How to do Nothing' is an action plan for thinking outside of capitalist narratives of efficiency and techno-determinism. “Time is money.” It’s an age-old adage, but it’s taken on new relevance in today’s digitally-driven, 24/7 economy. Whether it’s work or self-improvement, we’ve come to believe that we should have something to show for our time. Anything that doesn’t produce value in those terms is simply too expensive. Writer and artist Jenny Odell, thinks it’s time to take a different approach. Never switching off, is a recipe for a bland and shallow existence where we simply follow the crowd and fail to do our own thinking. The result? A world of mediocrity, misery, and selfishness. Odell’s alternative is deceptively simple – doing nothing. Above all, this is a question of attentiveness. Learning to direct and focus our attention is a way of opening up an entirely new and deeper experience of the world around us. In the age of social media and its all-out assault on our attention, this is an act of resistance that might just change everything. This book will teach you why social media makes us behave like brands; what nature can teach us about attention; and how attentiveness to others can make us more empathetic.

This book is a New York Times Bestseller and was favorited by Barack Obama in 2019. The book is written by Jenny Odell, an artist, and writer who teaches at Stanford University and has been an artist-in-residence at Facebook, the Internet Archive, and the San Francisco Planning Department.


Key learnings

After the defeat of once-powerful labor movements in the 1980s, a new idea emerged: that all of us are capitalists. This notion eroded the separation of work and leisure. In today’s economy, every hour of the day is potentially monetizable, meaning that we’ve come to see “doing nothing” as a luxury we just can’t afford. That, however, is a mistake. When we pause and really engage with the world, we can find deeper, more satisfying meaning in everyday experiences.


When work and leisure become indistinguishable, doing “nothing” looks like a waste of time.

In the 1880s, American laborers began pushing for an eight-hour workday. They didn’t just want more time to heal their sore muscles, though. As a popular trade union song of the era put it, the purpose of the struggle was to secure “eight hours of work, eight hours of rest, and eight hours of what we will.” This was a demand for a life outside work – the right to do nothing in particular for at least one-third of the day.

In the twentieth century, reformers made the eight-hour workday a reality. Their laws remain in effect, but the distinction they drew between work and leisure looks increasingly shaky today. It was long assumed that economic risk was the business of capitalists and investors. Workers were expected to clock in, get the job done, and go home. Do that, they were told, and their positions and wages would be safe. This arrangement lasted as long as labor movements could enforce it through strikes and political pressure. That ended in the 1980s after a series of historic losses defanged once-powerful trade unions and workers’ parties.

In his 2011 book 'After the Future', the Italian philosopher Franco Berardi links these defeats to the emergence of a new idea – that we are all capitalists. This means that we can’t expect economic security. Just as companies navigate perilous markets in search of opportunities, we must compete against each other for one-time jobs or gigs. The way to thrive in this ultra-competitive gig economy is simple – never switch off. This isn’t just what critics like Berardi say, however. Take a notorious 2017 advertising campaign for Fiverr, a platform that helps users find freelancers to complete mini-jobs. As their ads put it, “doers” in today’s world “eat coffee for lunch,” run on sleep deprivation and happily interrupt sex to take calls from clients. Fiverr’s suggestion that these were good things was widely ridiculed, but the company hit upon one of the essential features of the gig economy – the disappearance of the boundaries between work, rest, and leisure. This shouldn’t surprise us. If the day consists of 24 potentially monetizable hours, time becomes an economic resource that’s just too valuable to be spent doing “nothing” or what you will.


Social media makes us behave like one-dimensional brands.

If we are all capitalists, it makes sense that we spend much of our time behaving like corporations. Thanks to social media, this work never ends. Even our leisure is numerically sifted and appraised via likes on Facebook and Instagram. We monitor the performance of our personal brands as though we were analyzing shares on the stock market. This profoundly alters the way we act when we’re online.

In his 1985 book 'No Sense of Place', the technology expert Joshua Meyrowitz explored the effect of electronic media on social behavior. Despite its age, it’s an eerily prescient analysis of social media. In the 1950s, Meyrowitz went on a three-month trip. When he returned, he was eager to talk about his adventure. He didn’t tell everyone the same story, however. His parents heard the “clean” version, his friends got the racier one, and his professors were given the “cultured” narrative.

All these different editions were equally true – they were just tailored to different audiences or contexts. But now imagine his parents had thrown a surprise party on his return and invited all these groups. Meyrowitz ventures that this would have gone one of two ways: he would have either offended one group or created a new account “bland enough to offend no one.” This is context collapse – the fact that everyone is always in the same room at the same time. The disappearance of different contexts goes even further in our own digital age. Today, our online audience knows so much about us that it’s extremely difficult to project different definitions of ourselves to different groups. The result? Awkward acts, like taking unpopular positions or admitting mistakes in public, come to be seen as weaknesses and liabilities. Ultimately, this means we create a version of ourselves that’s acceptable to everyone at all times – a personality with the edges smoothed off.

This isn’t just a race to the mediocre bottom, though. It also runs against something that’s completely normal and human – changing over time. But that’s the point. Social media isn’t designed to foster human expression and dialogue. It functions as a tool for personal brand management, and the two pillars of any brand identity are internal coherence and continuity over time.


If we want to live more meaningful lives, we need to reappraise what is valuable.

Today’s economy doesn’t have an off button. Every moment of every day is a financial resource to be captured, optimized, and appropriated. Snooze and you can expect to lose. But despite this obsession with creating measurable value and optimizing every facet of life, many people still recognize a different truth. This holds that meaning is often the product of accidents, chance, and serendipitous encounters – the very “off-time” our 24/7 cult of productivity attempts to eliminate.

In the fourth century BC, the Chinese philosopher Zhuang Zhou penned a story called “The Useless Tree.” In it, a carpenter comes across a large and ancient oak. He deems this tree to be worthless because its old, gnarled branches aren’t any good for timber. Later, the tree appears in the carpenter’s dreams and quizzes him on his definition of usefulness. Timber trees, the oak argues, are very “useful,” yet these trees are invariably felled in their prime by humans. “If I had been of some use,” the oak then asks, “would I have grown this large?” Uselessness, it seems, can be useful after all – you just have to take the oak’s perspective. This point, the oak concludes, is missed by those who only see potential timber when they look at trees.

Zhuang’s oak has a real-life counterpart. The hills above San Francisco Bay near the author’s home in California were once full of towering, thousand-year-old Sequoia redwoods. During the 1850s gold rush, however, loggers felled all these ancient giants – except for one. Today, this wizened redwood is known as “Old Survivor,” and it has a lesson for us. Old Survivor was able to escape the fate of its neighbors for two reasons. First off, it was too twisted to entice loggers. Secondly, it was perched on a steep, rocky slope that reinforced the idea that cutting this tree down just wasn’t worth the bother. In other words, Old Survivor was too weird and too difficult to proceed easily toward the sawmill.

This is a great example of what the author calls resistance-in-place – making yourself into a shape that resists being appropriated by the dominant system. Just as the worth of trees doesn’t have to be measured by their suitability for timber, value in our lives doesn’t have to be measured in terms of productivity. 


Doing nothing allows you to truly pay attention to the world.

One evening in 2015, just before sunset on a cliff overlooking the Pacific ocean, a greeter checked guests into an area of foldout chairs cordoned off with red rope. After being shown to their seats and reminded not to take photographs, they watched the sunset. As it disappeared below the horizon, they applauded and refreshments were served. This strange scene was part of an artwork by Scott Polach entitled 'Applause Encouraged' and it neatly encapsulates an important aspect of doing nothing. Polach’s work didn’t create the sunset – it drew attention to it. This makes the work a great example of what the author terms 'attention-holding architecture'. This is a framing device that encourages the kind of sustained contemplation that habit, familiarity, and distraction often close off.

Attention-holding architecture comes in different forms. One of the author’s favorite examples is a public garden near her Oakland home, the Morcom Amphitheater of Roses. Nestled into the side of a hill, the bowl-shaped garden contains dozens of branching paths that wind their way through and around roses, trellises, and oak trees. There are hundreds of ways to navigate this space and just as many places to sit. It’s designed to hold your attention – the garden wants you to stay awhile and lose yourself in its sights and fragrances. It’s also possible to think about this concept in a more abstract way. Take the practice of deep listening. This was developed by American musician and composer Pauline Oliveros as part of her search for inner peace during the turbulent years of the war in Vietnam. According to Oliveros, hearing, and listening refer to different things. The former is simply the physiological means of perceiving sound. Listening, by contrast, means directing your attention to sound and its psychological significance. Deep listening, in other words, is a metaphorical architecture encouraging us to be more receptive to the world.

You can see how this works if you think about birdwatching. Oftentimes, when the birds are hidden, birdwatchers aren’t actually watching anything – they’re listening. And the first step toward being able to distinguish different birdsongs is breaking a wall of meaningless sound into discrete units. Like the sunset, these sounds are already there, but they only become perceptible and meaningful when you stop and do nothing but pay close attention to the world.


The brain usually only notices a tiny part of the data it processes, but silence can help widen your perspective.

Attention is like breathing. It’s always there, in the background. When you do notice it, you might be surprised to discover how shallow it is. And just as mindful breathing can train you to consciously deepen your breath, it’s possible to train yourself to be more attentive. The trick is realizing just how much your brain is already processing. In the 1990s, Arien Mack and Irvin Rock, two psychologists based at Berkeley University, designed an experiment to get to the bottom of 'inattentional blindness' – the things we don’t see because we’re not paying attention. They asked subjects to look at a cross on a screen and say if one of the two lines was longer than the other. This was just a decoy, however. As participants studied the crosses, small stimuli flashed up on their screens. When these were within the area circumscribing the cross, subjects were aware of them. When they fell outside this area, they went unnoticed.

The idea that we notice things when they’re in our field of vision makes intuitive sense, but there’s more to it than that. When stimuli outside the area took particularly distinctive forms like a subject’s name, they did notice it. But when these stimuli were made less distinctive, like spelling out “Janny” instead of “Jenny,” they once again went unnoticed. Mack and Rock concluded that the brain processes far more information than they had assumed and was only deciding later on whether stimuli would be perceived or not. This suggests that attention is like a key – it’s the means by which the door dividing unconscious and conscious perception is unlocked. So how do you find this strange key? Well, try embracing silence. 

Take the composer John Cage’s work 4’33”, a three-movement piece in which a pianist sits in front of her instrument without playing a single note. Every time it’s performed, the audience becomes attuned to the ambient sounds of a concert hall. Suddenly, they hear the musical potential of a cough or a scraping chair. This was Cage’s intention. As he put it, “everything we hear is music.”Walk down the street with this idea in your mind and there’s a good chance you’ll experience familiar scenes with newfound clarity. Like taking a conscious deep breath after years of shallow breathing, you might just wonder how you’ve never really heard any of these sounds before.


Choosing to be attentive to others takes the sting out of frustrating everyday experiences.

Imagine you’re sitting in your car at an intersection. You’re late for work and the traffic is hell today. Then, just as the light turns green, another car suddenly dashes in front of you and cuts you off. How do you react? Chances are, you’re going to focus on your own experience – in this case, the inconvenience caused by someone else’s reckless selfishness. But say you learned that the other driver was rushing their injured child to the hospital – you’d probably look at the situation differently, right? In most cases, it’s impossible to know what really motivates other people’s actions, but considering the possibilities can improve your experience of the world.

In 2005, the American novelist David Foster Wallace gave a commencement speech at Kenyon College, Ohio. In it, he offered graduating students a bleak sketch of what adult life had in store for them. Time and again, he said, they would find themselves in hideously, fluorescently lit supermarkets at the end of long days at work and terrible traffic jams. When this happened, they would have two choices.The first was to see the world only from their own point of view. When you do this, everything is about your own hunger, tiredness, and desire to get home. From this perspective, other people – whether it’s other road users, fellow shoppers, or sales clerks – appear simply as obstacles. This, Wallace suggested, is a surefire recipe for irritation and misery.

But there is an alternative. When you pause to pay attention and think through other people’s possible motivations, you begin to see that their lived realities are just as complex and deep as your own. The woman in front of you who just snapped at you, for example, might not always be like this. She might just be having a rough day. Maybe her dad just died, or an unexpected bill left her short for the month.It doesn’t really matter whether this is true. The point, Wallace argued, is that this kind of attention to possibilities transforms the way you perceive others. Rather than seeing them as things in your way, you begin to see them as fellow inhabitants of a shared space in which your interests are no more or less important than anyone else’s. This ultimately makes it possible to experience even a crowded, loud, slow, consumer-hell-type situation as meaningful.
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